Conditional on Trump/Biden winning the 2024 presidential, will there be a large scale rioting in the US before 2026 ?
Plus
29
Ṁ62002026
1D
1W
1M
ALL
60%
Trump wins ; there is no large scale rioting before 2026
41%
Trump wins ; there is a large scale rioting before 2026
3%
Biden wins ; there is a large scale rioting before 2026
3%
Biden wins ; there is no large scale rioting before 2026
There should be no N/A resolution !
Due to the pivot, I can’t make real conditional markets so these are about joint probabilities. Each option will resolve YES if and only if both statements (about elections ; about riots) come true and NO otherwise. Which means if Trump or Biden wins the election, then exactly one option should resolve YES and three should resolve NO.
Before 2026 means by 31st December, 2025.
For whether there is a large-scale rioting, I will defer to this market :
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