In the 2020 PhilPapers Survey, philosophers were asked about their stance on theism versus atheism. The results showed that 14.6% of respondents accepted or leaned toward theism. This question aims to predict whether this percentage will decrease by the time of the 2028 survey. Participants should consider trends in the philosophical community, societal shifts in religious beliefs, and any other factors that might influence the religiosity of professional philosophers. The outcome will be determined based on the next PhilPapers Survey results for the same question, comparing the percentage of philosophers who accept or lean toward theism in 2028 to the 14.6% reported in 2020.

Background: The PhilPapers Survey is a periodic survey that gauges philosophical attitudes and positions among professional philosophers and faculty members worldwide. It covers a broad range of topics, including metaphysical, ethical, and epistemological positions. This question focuses specifically on the section of the survey dealing with belief in theism, providing a snapshot of philosophical religiosity and its changes over time.

Outcome Criteria: The question will resolve positively if the percentage of respondents who accept or lean toward theism in the next survey is lower than 14.6%. It will resolve negatively if the percentage is equal to or higher than 14.6%. If the next PhilPapers Survey does not include a question on theism, or if the survey is not conducted, the market will resolve as N/A. Or if the Survey (or a suitable other survey) doesn't release by 2028 it will resolve N/A.

This was the result of the 2020 Survey:
God: theism or atheism?

Accept or lean toward: atheism 678 / 931 (72.8%)

Accept or lean toward: theism 136 / 931 (14.6%)

Agnostic/undecided 51 / 931 (5.5%)

Reject both 16 / 931 (1.7%)

The question is too unclear to answer 16 / 931 (1.7%)

Skip 9 / 931 (1.0%)

Accept another alternative 8 / 931 (0.9%)

Accept an intermediate view 7 / 931 (0.8%)

Other 5 / 931 (0.5%)

There is no fact of the matter 5 / 931 (0.5%)