Eliezer Yudkowsky p(Doom) stock
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93
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A stock meant to track how the market perceives Eliezer Yudkowsky's current p(AI Doom) at any given moment (from zero to 100 percent).
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Related questions
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 50% at any point before 2040?
23% chance
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Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 97% at any point before 2028?
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Will Eliezer's AI doom market have a higher P(doom) in the third quarter of 2026 than today's (2023-09-27) 21%?
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If Eliezer Yudkowsky charitably reviews my work, he will update his p(doom) to < 0.1. (Below 10%)
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Will my p(doom) be above 10% in 20 years (2043)?
32% chance
Will my p(doom) be above 10% in 10 years (2033)?
58% chance
Will davidad meaningfully affect p(doom) by more than 3%?
6% chance