https://x.com/WatcherGuru/status/1812251989759418579
Can resolve to multiple answers.
Resolves based on the consensus of credible media reports on whether this factor contributed to the shooter’s firing toward the stage at the July 13th rally. I plan to be cautious in resolving any option given the evolving nature of the investigations.
If there are no active investigations/commissions, the market end date has passed (12/31/2024), and there is not a consensus of credible media reports either way (e.g. no media reports, inconclusive reports, or conflicting reports), I plan to resolve an option to a Keynesian beauty contest (resolves to current %). If I suspect market manipulation to game the Keynesian beauty contest occurred (e.g. spikes right before market close or a whale entering on the opposite side of other traders without explanation), I retain the right to resolve based on what I think the % would be absent the manipulation OR resolve based on an external forecast (e.g. another prediction market such as Metaculus or Polymarket, a poll of Manifold users, or asking a AI forecaster).
If there is an option with an ambiguous meaning that is not clarified by the creator of the option in the comments (or has not already been clarified by me in the comments as of 07/16/24), I will ask the most recent ChatGPT "What would it mean for an assasin to be motivated by [INSERT OPTION]? Please be as concise as possible." I will use this answer to clarify the meaning (potentially asking follow-ups to understand potential edge cases).
I am open to feedback on edits to the criteria within 24 hours after the edit was made. After that, I will be far less likely to alter the criteria based on new requests. This policy should ensure everyone can trade with confidence.
1,000
1.00@FriendlyMerc “the shooter’s firing toward the stage at the July 13th rally.” It’s been clear the whole time and the market predates the 2nd attempt.
@DismalScientist you may want to revisit how you are resolving this because we see huge swings due to people thinking this is about the 2nd attempt and moving the value a lot due to this confusion, breaking the meaning of the “Keynesian beauty contest.” There wasn’t new info about the July shooting driving these changes.
recent article from Newsweek, with statements from the school. they claim a lot of the stuff being stated as true about the guy are lies or rumours and the records they have were that he attended school, got good grades, wasn't relentlessly bullied, and never tried out for the rifle team. here's the article in case it impacts people's assumptions here:
https://www.newsweek.com/thomas-matthew-crooks-school-update-bullying-1928113
@DismalScientist Does major depressive disorder count as insanity?
Recall one of Crooks’ reported searches was for Major depressive order .
insanity is a legal definition while mental disorders are a medical one. imo might have overlap, but it's not clear cut! the big difference is that "insanity" is about ability to understand one's actions, consequences, and the processes that come out of them, while the other is about prevailing mood and ability to function without interrupting your life.
When the F.B.I. was able to finally access Mr. Crooks’s cellphones and other electronic devices, agents could see that he had searched for images of Mr. Trump as well as President Biden, Attorney General Merrick B. Garland and even F.B.I. Director Christopher A. Wray.
Mr. Crooks also had at typed in “major depressive disorder” and searched for dates and places for appearances for both Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump.
One of Mr. Trump’s planned appearances happened to be about 50 miles from Mr. Crooks’s house in Bethel Park, Pa.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/17/us/politics/secret-service-trump-shooting.html
It's looking like the speculation that his motive was proving that he wasn't a terrible shot after being kicked out of the shooting club in high school was on to something.
It might also be worth adding "hated all politicians". An interview with a former classmate just dropped where he recalls Crooks as vocally disliking all politicians (admittedly not uncommon): https://www.foxnews.com/video/6358216782112
INSANITY
law : unsoundness of mind or lack of the ability to understand that prevents someone from having the mental capacity required by law to enter into a particular relationship, status, or transaction or that releases someone from criminal or civil responsibilies.
A major depression wouldn't be enough; it would need to be accompanied by symptons like psychosis to qualify. At least under law.
@traders I added more details to the resolution criteria. Importantly, “open to feedback on these criteria filed in the next 24 hours (prior to 3:35 PM PT). After that, I will be far less likely to alter the criteria based on new requests. This policy should ensure everyone can trade with certainty.
P.S. unfortunately I am traveling this week so may not respond promptly, but I will consider any feedback filed before that deadline even if I only see it after the deadline.”
The bombs make the seemingly ridiculous suggestion that he didn’t really care about the election (or at least wasn’t purely motivated by it) more plausible. He apparently spent a bunch of time building bombs and then didn’t use them. Building a bomb isn’t what you would do if your goal was killing Trump all along, bombs aren’t great for assassination attempts. My guess is the bomb in his car was for after, to kill himself and others in a final blaze of glory which would by itself suggest he wasn’t motivated purely by an instrumental motive to kill Trump. But it is a lot of work to build a bomb for something so inessential and unlikely to ever be used.
I think perhaps he started out planning a terrorist attack with a bomb and a different target then changed his plan. Still could have a political motive but it is a little more consistent with pure rage at the world or a pure desire for fame as motives. If you had did have pure infamy as a motive Trump would be a very attractive target.