Significant AI memory scaling axis unlocked before 2029?
5
Ṁ1132028
47%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves YES if there is strong evidence that a new axis of AI scaling has emerged involving memory before January 1st 2029.
This includes, but is not limited to, an algorithm that yields continued improvements on benchmarks as a function of inference-time memory (measured in e.g. gigabytes of RAM) across multiple orders of magnitude. This is distinct from the model weights that are memory invariant between training and inference.
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