https://x.com/dwarkesh_sp/status/1826340260735058400
This market is specifically on whom the above tweet is referring to, regardless of whether the interview occurs.
1,000
1.00https://x.com/ben_j_todd/status/1863066452921876918
Dwarkesh spotted in China. Could it be Xi?
@Ellis As far as I could tell from googling, Xi has never been on a podcast.
@beaver1 lol I don't even know who Roon is; a search turns up a dead Prussian named Albrecht Theodor Emil Graf von Roon
@beaver1 You’ve got a different one, zuck was a side character in a slashfic
@MichaelDickens I would have said that former UK PMs also retain their "big deal" status, though the timing suggests that the person Dwarkesh was talking is an even bigger deal.
@DylanBowman Is this market going to get resolved as N/A on December 1st if Dwarkesh doesn't say who his tweet was referring to by that date?
@WilliamKiely Thanks for pointing that out--I've extended the resolution date to mid-2025. Perhaps at some point in early 2025, if the market hasn't resolved, I'll reach out to Dwarkesh.
@DylanBowman If Dwarkesh says the guest fell through and it never happens will you resolve it to "no one"?
@squirrelfish So the creator's earlier comments below were pretty clear that unless a specific guest can be found that this refers to, it resolves N/A. so I am confident that would be covered under "the guest fell through". (It also means the option "No one, the tweet was a joke or intended to attract advertisers without referring to someone specific" should probably be edited to be INVALID because AFAIK, in that case, he would also plan to resolve it N/A).
That being said, the comments for this market are now very hard to scroll through, so if possible it would be nice if this clarification could be added to the market description itself.
