Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve YES for any individual listed who makes a public statement in 2025 falsely claiming that Ukraine initiated or is responsible for starting the war with Russia.

Statements must:

• Be made during the calendar year 2025

• Be verifiable through reliable media sources, official transcripts, or social media posts from the individual's verified accounts

• Clearly attribute the initiation of hostilities or primary responsibility for the conflict to Ukraine rather than Russia

• Any statements to the effect that "Ukraine started the war" counts even if it is part of a larger point about NATO enlargement causing the war. However, merely saying that "the west" started the war doesn't count.

• Stating that Ukraine shares "some blame" for the war will count too

The market will resolve NO for individuals who do not make such claims during 2025.

Clarification

The statements must be made AFTER this question was posted, i.e. March. 8. 2025