The kind of market this is, as outlined in the description, could be recreated as one lf the standard markets types for long term forecasting, no?

OpenAI Superalignment Team is gone :(

@TheAllMemeingEye if AI was becoming more dangerous, or the dangers becoming more apparent, we would see more focus on alignment, not less.

@tbird Are you saying AI is somehow becoming safer?

@TheAllMemeingEye 🤣

@GazDownright care to elaborate? if I've said something laughably wrong please correct me lol

@TheAllMemeingEye Not at all! I found your reasoning brilliantly funny;

GIVEN AI more dangerous = more focus (as per t-bird),
THEN Alignment team quitting = AI less dangerous?

@TheAllMemeingEye it's as safe as it has ever been. The dangers are still theoretical, and it doesn't make sense to assume they will show up all of a sudden, especially the existential ones -- they will come from the increases in capability, and that won't happen suddenly.

Microsoft pulled their model because it was generating racially biased pictures. We won't simply wake up one day with an AI that is controlling and harming humans and whose cord we cannot pull.

@tbird isn't the fear usually that AI will seem to gradually become perfectly safe, then reach superintelligence, then get let out of the box, then suddenly reveal it was pretending to be safe so we wouldn't delete it, and by then it's too late?

@TheAllMemeingEye I think the usual line of argument is that it will self improve iteratively from LLMs into superintelligence, and we will be unable to stop it because it will be so much smarter than all of humanity put together.

@tbird I think that can also simultaneously be true, and indeed both may be unexpectedly sudden

I was surprised by the leap in capabilities, but the thesis that alignment work will ramp up as a necessity to develop useful commercial applications of these models seem to check out.

7-year TIPS yields 2.22% and real discount rates can’t be negative so that gives an upper bound of around 15% for P(doom) in an efficient market for treasuries.

@JonathanRay The EMH is false though. :)

@IsaacKing Clearly, since tips yields have gone a bit below -1% at the peak of the bond bubble

NA resolution just makes this a KBC to earn the time-value of the interim profits.

You don’t need to close this market in 2027 for the incentives to bind. You are overthinking this

@AlexanderLeCampbell yes he does. look at other markets that are similar but didnt do that and they have very different predictions.

I think the true value of this kind of market should be 50%, as people which wins money will be more of YES ppl if market >50% and NO ppl if market <50%

@BAUEREsaie You can hold any position to expiry to guarantee a zero payoff when it N/A’s. It is just a Keynesian beauty contest.

@aashiq Don't you think people winning money 2 hours before resolution won't close out their positions?

@BAUEREsaie N/A undoes all trades. Doesn't matter if you close out your position, it all gets rolled back.

@jack not all trades. I can get in profit M100, pull out of this market, and then turn this M100 in M300 in a few years before resolution. N/A resolution will leave me these M200

@BAUEREsaie They may. But then again, there will likely also be insane trading dynamics in the last 2 hours, and some users may not be able to keep their hands out of the cookie jar. This will then drive other users to prey on them and so forth and so on.

@Lavander That is correct, you can get temporary profits for the duration of the market, which is long. However, in reply to the comments about trading 2 hours before resolution - there is no point to that as those profits vanish on resolution.

@jack You may be able to open and close a position at a profit 2 hours before resolution, especially if Manifold has become a much larger and more liquid market by then. This regularly happens in ie physically settled commodity futures where the vast majority of the trading volume does not want to hold a position to expiry.

@aashiq Anyone who has a profit will want to close, so as to keep their profit. This creates an incentive to trade ahead of them, which may persist right up until market expiry.

Your mana gains from selling are reversed in an N/A though

@Joshua If I open a position and close it at a profit, do I not keep the profit even in an N/A event?

You do not.

@Joshua So what happens if you close your position and then lose all your mana? Does it go negative?

@DavidBolin yes.