Will Mathieu van der Poel win the Green Jersey at the 2025 Tour de France?
19
Ṁ14k
Jul 27
6%
chance

Resolves Yes if the winner of the points classification at the 2025 Tour de France, as awarded at the post-race podium ceremony, is Mathieu van der Poel. Resolves No otherwise.

The leader and winner of this classification is normally distinguished with a green jersey. There is a table of points available at the finish of each stage, and there is an intermediate sprint point on most stages where additional points can be earned.

If there is no post-race podium ceremony or the green jersey is not awarded there, resolves based on the first person announced as the points classification winner by the race organization. (Such announcement must be in the form of a press release or social media message or similar -- an automated leaderboard system displaying a winner would not suffice.)

maillot vert TDF 2025 green jersey points classification

/Eliza/will-tadej-pogacar-win-the-green-je

/RedzoneITG/who-will-win-the-green-jersey-point

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Seems like he has a fair chance of wearing green tomorrow, or at least be leading the classification.

@Eliza he came very close, just 4 points off the lead.

@Eliza Tomorrow he might only have energy for the intermediate sprint.

I think this is still an interesting market. No one else believes yet.

bought Ṁ500 YES

@Iamczecksy IDK, on Manifold no one believes....on sportsbooks he seems to have moved to ~30% today.

He's 12 points short of Milan and could be in line for finish line points on 1-2 more stages this week. If he still doesn't try for the intermediates it's less likely, but he's within range right now for sure.

@Eliza I agree this market got more interesting after Stage 3.

bought Ṁ1,000 NO

I feel pretty confident that this one is not happening, based on Philipsen going for the intermediate sprints and not MVDP.

@RedzoneITG I think they will change tactics once MVDP is ahead in a few days.

@RedzoneITG I wonder how they will feel now that Jasper is out of the race. Green could be within reach for MVDP still.