This question aims to forecast the "mana supply" figure on the page linked below. I want to know if there will be more or less mana in the system 30 days after the first payout of prize points to cash.
https://manifold.markets/stats
Currently the page looks like this (note: the exact figure used for resolution will be different than what is shown here):
The current mana supply is 280,983,612 Mana and 31,533.18 Prize Cash. For the purposes of this market, Prize Cash is multiplied by 100. So the total "mana supply" as of today is 280,983,612 mana + 31,533,180 prize cash = 312,516,792.
Some other parts of the site refer to the new currency as "Sweepcash" or other terms, and if the mana supply chart changes the terminology, we will adjust the rules to match.
Please note extra details about the calculation of this figure below.
Resolution
As soon as possible following the event of the first user reported to cash out prize cash to mana ("first payout time"), users will report the status of the "Mana supply" table to this market. Note that this must be the "prize cash" awarded with the Sweepstakes model and not some other source of Manifold users being paid. It is okay if there are multiple sources of "prize cash", but we are specifically talking about whatever currency is received upon a market's resolution that allows direct conversion to real money.
A specific figure reported will be chosen as the initial mana supply. The initial mana supply will be calculated by adding the total Mana in the system, to 100 times the total Prize Cash. It may not be possible to figure out exactly what the mana supply was at the moment the first user cashes out, so whatever figure is chosen at the time will be official. A specific date/time for this market's resolution 30 days later will be chosen at the same time and the description will be updated with the initial mana supply and the resolution time.
As close as possible to the resolution time, the mana supply value will be observed and calculated by users and posted to this topic, this is the final mana supply. If the market's resolution appears likely to hinge upon very small differences in the value at the resolution time, a moderator who has not participated in the market will be asked in advance to gather the required data at the resolution time. If the stats/Mana supply page ceases to exist, I will make every effort to get this information from Manifold staff. (If Manifold staff refuse to give information within 30 days of asking, three uninvested moderators will be chosen to select the most appropriate resolution and if they are not in unanimous agreement, the market will resolve to the 3rd option.)
If an additional currency is introduced before the first payout time, we will adjust the criteria to suit the situation. If an additional currency or other changes are introduced after the first payout time, the calculation should remain as faithful as possible to the mana supply as described at the first payment time.
To resolve Higher: The final mana supply must be strictly higher than the initial mana supply.
To resolve Lower: The final mana supply must be exactly equal to, or lower than the initial mana supply.
To resolve No prize points will be withdrawn in 2024: Manifold never starts cash payouts, or they start them but are never able to honor them, etc. Resolves promptly on 1 January (Manifold time) as soon as no one withdrew money in 2024. There will be no early resolution if Manifold announces they are canceling the prize points to payout system. Resolves promptly on 1 January 2025 (Pacific time) if no payments have been made.
If for some reason I want to resolve this market N/A but am not allowed, I will resolve it 10/10/80, with the 80 on the No prize points will be withdrawn to cash in 2024 option.
Please ask questions in the comment section.
Details on calculation of mana supply:
I can't guess exactly what the mana supply table will look like in the future, so if it changes we will do extra accounting to figure out a fair total. The sum of mana balances, spice balances, total mana invested in markets, and liquidity in AMMs is what we are going for. If new mechanics are introduced before the first cash payout, we will update the description in the spirit of the original question.
At this time, this query is used to calculate the mana supply. It is including all accounts, even system accounts. If this changes in a material way, we will consult with Manifold staff to make sure the initial mana supply and final mana supply calculations are fair and adjust the market criteria if needed.
The spirit of the question is roughly "Will Manifold just pay out a bunch of money and shrivel up, or will users actually buy mana?". It's possible Manifold continues printing mana to raise the supply, but my understanding is they intend to significantly reduce mana printing.
1,000
1.00
Case has reported beginning the process of redeeming $200 of sweepcash for real money. However, the system said it could be 3-5 business days before it is approved.
There is a record for CASH_OUT in TXNS, but it seems like it could be reversed if the transaction is rejected. I'm provisionally setting:
The first payout time to right now
The resolution time to 2pm Pacific on 31 October 2024
The initial mana supply to 293623662 based on this screenshot from the /stats page:
284813600 mana + (100 * 88100.62 sweepcash) => 293623662 mana supply
If for some reason Case's withdrawal does not go through as expected, I may choose reset the first payout time, resolution time, and initial mana supply. I will not update the description until these figures are official.
@Eliza Case's withdrawal was successful, so the figures from the above post will be official. And the resolution time is 2pm Pacific on 31 October 2024.
I updated the description in a way that is faithful to the original question, as described in some other comments. The description has always maintained that the accounting method may change if there are changes in the situation.
Short version of the changes:
"Mana supply" as of now means (total mana) + (100 * total prize cash)
The previously-excluded accounts like the Manifold system account, are now included in the total on the page, so I updated that part of the description
I think everything else is about the same.
I tried to confirm with Manifold staff whether there are still any Mana Sinks or not. They maintained that fees are still being taken on bets in mana. I don't think there are any other mana sinks right now, but there could be in the future.
It also seems that Manifold can choose to fund their system account with more Prize Cash at will. Keep that in mind while you play.
Alright, I had a look at the criteria and all the new announcements related to the site.
From the original criteria:
I can't guess exactly what the mana supply table will look like in the future, so if it changes we will do extra accounting to figure out a fair figure. The sum of mana balances, spice balances, total mana invested in markets, and liquidity in AMMs is what we are going for. If new mechanics are introduced before the first cash payout, we will update the description in the spirit of the original question.
...
The spirit of the question is roughly "Will Manifold just pay out a bunch of money and shrivel up, or will users actually buy mana?". It's possible Manifold continues printing mana to raise the supply, but my understanding is they intend to significantly reduce mana printing.
So, we need to update the description in the spirit of the original question.
Attempting a summary of the changes announced today that are relevant to this market:
The stats page now displays mana amounts in one column and "Prize cash" amounts in another
All existing "prize points" were converted to just plain old mana, that currency is gone
The mana net worth of anyone who KYCs can be duplicated in Sweepscash (at 1000 to 1) for those users. So a user with 1000 mana yesterday, could have 1000 mana and $1 tomorrow
Mana can no longer be converted to anything else at this time. No charitable donations
There is still a mana sink in the form of fees on every bet placed on play money markets
There are also platform fees on the sweepstakes markets
Users will probably be able to withdraw sweepstakes to money if they wish, after markets resolve
Have I covered everything important?
Next up would be to figure out how to modify the criteria.
@Eliza Here is what I am seeing so far, let me know if I am not following it correctly:
The description and title of this market currently indicate we should be adding everything listed under "mana supply", even if it is in two different columns. But we are free to edit the description to match the current situation.
The top of the description says that "prize points and mana both count the same", but that was written when they were clearly at a 1:1 ratio. It's not clear whether mana and prize cash should be accounted for as displayed on the page (1:1 rate) or if they should be adjusted in counting, like 100:1 or 1000:1
There is almost no way for the supply of "old mana" to decrease, the only way mana can decrease right now is via betting fees. People can't cash out mana to donations or anything. If I said "We're not counting the prize points at all", that would not be faithful to the intent of the market. I don't want this to be a market about "how much mana will be eaten up by platform fees during the 30 days after...."
Manifold is currently in a process of "airdropping" a huge amount of money to anyone who KYCs, and it is likely that the first withdrawals will happen before this process is completely done. But it also seems like there is a fair chance "most" of the KYC airdrop will be done before the first prize points are withdrawn to cash.
So:
I think we need to still include both regular mana and prize cash. Even though mana is no longer convertible to anything of value.
I think we should multiply the prize cash amount by 100, to match the implied conversion rate from the Get Mana page.
If the total under mana says Ṁ279,830,381 and the total under prize cash says 𝕊12345.00, we would add together 279,830,381 and 1,234,500 to produce the figures used for this market.
That would mean new purchases of prize cash/mana would have a higher weight than the airdrop. It seems right.
Everyone on board with this direction? If so, I will update the description with new screenshots of the Mana Supply page and an explanation that we will determine the initial figure as total mana + (100 * total prize cash), and the same for the final figure.
@Eliza I was planning on reopening the market today and adjusting the description. However, the mana supply page seems extremely inconsistent at the moment and I want to make sure I understand how it works before moving forward.
Yesterday's snapshot:
Today's:
The Mana column did not change at all. The Prize Cash column changed, but in a weird and unpredictable way. I do not think this chart reflects reality.
For example, Prize Points don't exist anymore, yet are still on the chart.
I am leaving the market closed until I can understand the Mana Supply page enough to update the description.
@Eliza The chart updated and now the numbers seem to match up. The first 3 items under Prize Cash add up to the last one.
I will update the description to match the above posts, then reopen trading.
@Gabrielle Thank you!
Everyone else: I need to read all the announcements to make sure I understand the mana supply page after this change. Then I will update the description and reopen trading.
My understanding is no one has withdrawn something for money yet.
Some people have pointed out the addition of an additional currency on the mana supply page. Please note/remember that the description of this market already states what we will do if that happens:
If an additional currency is introduced before the first payout time, we will adjust the criteria to suit the situation.
So far there is no information about the additional currency other than what is on the stats page (it's not introduced yet?), so I can't say exactly how we will adjust the criteria, but you can probably make a good guess if you read the last paragraph of the description.
@Eliza And just for a reference point. This image will likely change in the future and does not represent anything 'final' related to this market. Just so people in the future can see what it looked like.
