Will California impose restrictions on training new advanced AIs before 2030?
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This market will resolve yes if California imposes restrictions that are sufficient to prevent the training of an AI more advanced than GPT-4 before 2030.
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This seems very unlikely to me, because there are soon going to be a bunch of AIs more powerful than GPT-4 out there. I wouldn't be surprised if California were to restrict training AIs more advanced than whatever is the state of the art as of the time of the laws' passing before 2030; I would be surprised if they set the threshold at GPT-4's level in specific.
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