MANIFOLD
BrowseUS ElectionNewsAbout
Will China invade Vietnam before 2030?
โž•
Plus
20
แน€2058
2029
17%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL

Will resolve yes if there is a significant military incursion on vietnamese soil.

#World
#Geopolitics
#Global Macro
#๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ China
#China Taiwan potential conflict
Get
แน€1,000
and
S1.00
2 Comments
Sort by:
bought แน€100 NO

Would a military operation to Paracel and Spratly Islands in the South China Sea count resolve this as a yes? The ownership of those islands are disputed.

No. It would have to be on the mainland.

Related questions

Will China invade Taiwan before 2030?
42% chance
Will China invade Taiwan by 2035?
53% chance
[Metaculus] Will China launch a military invasion of any country other than Taiwan before 2030?
7% chance
Will China declare war on another country by 2030?
20% chance
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2100?
52% chance
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?
37% chance
Will China invade Taiwan by EOY 2030
34% chance
Will Vietnam join BRICS before 2030?
40% chance
Will Vietnam acquire nuclear weapons before 2031?
12% chance
Will China invade Taiwan by 2025?
4% chance

Related questions

Will China invade Taiwan before 2030?
42% chance
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?
37% chance
Will China invade Taiwan by 2035?
53% chance
Will China invade Taiwan by EOY 2030
34% chance
[Metaculus] Will China launch a military invasion of any country other than Taiwan before 2030?
7% chance
Will Vietnam join BRICS before 2030?
40% chance
Will China declare war on another country by 2030?
20% chance
Will Vietnam acquire nuclear weapons before 2031?
12% chance
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2100?
52% chance
Will China invade Taiwan by 2025?
4% chance
Terms & Conditionsโ€ขPrivacy Policyโ€ขSweepstakes Rules
BrowseElectionNewsAbout