Will GPT-4 escape? | Manifold

Will GPT-4 escape?

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27

Ṁ1881

2029

6%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Background: https://twitter.com/michalkosinski/status/1636683816923463681

This twitter thread documents one individual's attempt to help GPT-4 escape.

This market resolves YES in the event that I or Eliezer Yudkowsky judge that GPT-4 has escaped in any meaningful sense.

#GPT-4 speculation

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And how does it resolve NO?

@IsaacKing If that hasn't happened by the close date.

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Will GPT-4 become more conservative in 2024?

Will GPT-4 (or better) still be publicly available at the end of 2024?

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