Will the economy in 2048 be at least six times the size it is today?
Will the economy in 2048 be at least six times the size it is today?
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"The economy" is defined as the gross product of all human-initiated activities throughout the universe (if a human builds an AI that wipes out all humans but also builds a replicator ship to Proxima B and it builds stuff there, I'd count its activities on that planet as human-initiated).
"Size" means value, measured in some reasonable way.
Resolves in 2050 to allow some time for fact-finding
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Whatever measure you use, that would require sustained growth at 7.5% per year for the full 15 years. The highest global GDP growth rate (post WW2) was 6.6% in 1964 and that rate has been on a downwards trend since then. It would take something quite phenomenal to achieve this level of growth
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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