I will not resolve to "Other". Although if you buy it you'll automatically get shares in any new options created.
1 year after Putin dies or is clearly out of power (eg in jail, fled to Switzerland etc.)
I will look in major media and find who is in charge. I'll favor the nominal highest leader, who typically does things like occupy the place of most honor, have the most rights, speak at the most important occasions etc. If there is a nominal leader who is a puppet, and we know the real power, I will choose the real power. IE in recent times regardless of his title, Putin has been in charge. I will keep extending the close date if needed. Nominate potential answers in comments and if reasonable I'll add them.
Milestones:
When Putin is out I will declare so in this market so you know the start date for the 1 year countdown
I will continuously add contenders whose name comes up. If they die I will resolve them NO early.
I will update the claim if required, attempting to preserve the meaning of the question.
After a year we pick the person who is leader then and we are done.
If Russia breaks up it resolves to who is control of Moscow. If there is a government in exile I will count whoever has on-the-ground control of Moscow. If the status is unknown at due date I'll extend it and allow betting, and will judge based on the same target date as we find more information. (IE about what history was at the intended 1 year deadline date) to the extent possible.
Links: https://twitter.com/JulianWaller/status/1716830712266170671
I will not resolve to "Other".
1,000
1.00
@Ernie Other gives you equal amount of shares in all newly created options, so there is a good incentive to buy it.
Also, a very similar question. Not exactly an arbitrage, but still.
https://manifold.markets/Irigi/who-will-be-the-next-president-of-r-22a0f2a2ffb5
@Ernie > If there is a nominal leader who is a puppet, it will not count.
How will you judge whether he/she is a puppet? Also, in such case, how does it resolve? As Chaos, or as new option spawned from Other?
@Irigi The case with Putin was pretty clear. I think in such a claimed situation, we would evaluate top western media to figure out who really is in charge. If they said the man behind, we'd say him. If they say the man in front was not a puppet, we'd say him. But we'd always be able to say one or the other.
If they say "The president actually has no power, and is controlled by a shadowy/unknown group or force" well that is pretty tough. If they're saying he's controlled, we couldn't accept "Chaos". If it's possibly a single person, we could hope to wait and see. If it truly is a group, an AI, or some other type of thing, that's very tough.
I could add an entry for "An AI" but I'd prefer to wait til we know whether AIs have public identities or not. If so, and they're potential candidates, when we know that, people can choose to nominate one and we can handle it like a person
If some kind of group mind/mafia/other new type of thing controls the puppet or is in charge itself - we can still try to handle it this way, by adding an entry for it, and evaluating to the best degree we can.