YES if Putin is alive and in control of Russia and the war is over
NO if Putin dies, loses power, or is in power while the war is going on at due date.
1,000
1.00I've decided to tell about "ticket method" on the base of this question. It is just an iterative (lengthier) but more visual version of Bayes theorem.
If we take two entities to define the outcome, A "Putin in power" (being dead is automatically not being in power, so i use the broader), B "war is over" (both entities "...at market closure"), then we have 4 combinations, not 2.
A and B: Putin in power AND the war is over.
This one corresponds to YES.
A and not B: Putin in power AND the war is going on.
Corresponds to NO.
Not A and B: Putin is not in power AND the war is over.
Corresponds to NO.
Not A and Not B: Putin is not in power AND the war is going on.
Corresponds to NO.
So we have 3 NO outcomes and 1 YES outcome. If we assume equiprobability of outcomes, then 25%. But the first outcome in my eyes is 10x less likely than the second. Putin has nothing else to do, he got absolute power within his country, so he seeks a challenge/a game outside. If he succeded blitzkrieg, he would choose the next country to fight with. Because the war is his sole aim, not the "defending the russians population in ukraine from nazi".
Using a "ticket method" my second approximation of probability would be:
1 ticket for outcome 1, 10 for second, 10 for third, 10 for fourth.
1/31 = 3.2% of YES resolution.
Btw according to this model, probability of Putin to die before 2026 is 20/31 = 64%.
In other markets i gave 40% to that (also with 2026 deadline), so to keep that intact (because i did not get new info which inrease his chances to die) i should reduce tickets in 3rd and 4th outcomes.
x/(x+11)=40%
x=7.33 tickets for 3rd and 4th in sum. (Could scale all tickets up to reduce inaccuracy, but i'll just truncate).
Third approximation:
1/(1+10+(5+2))=1/18
5.5% for YES resolution.
I am going to slowly bet this market down to 6%.
@KongoLandwalker one of the assumtions which i forgot to mention: "if putin alive, then 99% he is in power". I rounded 99% up to 1 and operated with only whether he is in power.