Roland Fryer [Harvard Economist] Multiple Choice markets (many topics, many market lengths)
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64%
He moves to another university, away from Harvard by mid 2026
58%
He moves to another university, away from Harvard by mid 2025
57%
Will he have a child by mid 2026? Best wishes to him and his family
44%
He writes a book which appears on the nytimes bestseller list by mid 2029
34%
He joins George Mason University by mid 2026
34%
He moves to another university, away from Harvard by mid 2024
34%
Harvard withdraws or softens the results of the investigations which found against him by mid 2025
31%
He spends at least a year overseas by mid 2029
25%
He retires from academic life by mid 2024
24%
He joins Manifold and is verified by mid 2026
24%
He wins a Nobel prize by mid 2036
16%
Harvard apologizes for the claims against him and admits they were without merit by mid 2025
All end dates are June 30 of the related year. I will resolve them as the time comes.
He seems like an interesting researcher and I wanted to try out a new multi-market general interest topic idea.
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