Russian attacks or invades Estonia by mid 2026
Mini
12
แน17202026
7%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Credible sources, battles or clear Russian troops on the other side of the border. Or, bombs them, or does drone strikes. Or other kinetic attacks.
Threats leading to concessions of territory or political union would not count because it's too hard to evaluate. There has to be at least a shot fired.
Get
1,000and
1.00
Sort by:
The community prediction on Metaculus for a related question ("Will Russia annex any part of any Baltic country by 2035?") is currently 4% (https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8786/russian-annexation-in-the-baltics-before-2035/).
Related questions
Related questions
Will Russia launch an invasion against at least one of the Baltic states by February 2029?
21% chance
Russian attacks or invades Latvia by mid 2026
11% chance
Russian attacks or invades Lithuania by mid 2026
16% chance
Russian attacks or invades Finland by mid 2026
6% chance
Will Russia militarily seize Narva, Estonia before the end of 2025?
1% chance
Will Belarus invade Ukraine by the end of 2026?
6% chance
Will Russia invade a NATO country before 2026?
3% chance
Russia launches a military incursion into Moldova before January 1, 2026
5% chance
Will there be an attempt of a large-scale Russian offensive by 2026?
80% chance
Will Russia militarily seize Narva, Estonia before the end of 2026?
3% chance