MANIFOLD
BrowseUS ElectionNewsAbout
Tsunami risk in Japan until mid 2030
Mini
6
Ṁ698
2030
80
expected
1D
1W
1M
ALL

Resolves to the total direct death count from tsunamis until the end of the market.

#🇯🇵 Japan
Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S1.00
1 Comment
Sort by:
bought Ṁ50 LOWER

This number would require 8.0+ earthquake (probably multiple or 9.0+) and even then it needs to be the right type and in the right location. Too unlikely, so this probably resolves to 0.

Related questions

Will Japan experience a large disaster during July 2025?
5% chance
Japan hyperinflation by 2030?
3% chance
Japan's population increases YoY before 2047
30% chance
Will Japan produce hydrogen with nuclear power before 2031?
72% chance
Will Japan no longer be a developed country by 2050?
6% chance
[Metaculus] Will there be a tsunami that kills at least 50,000 people before 2030?
28% chance
Will Japan acquire nuclear weapons before 2031?
40% chance
When will Japan’s mega earthquake happen
Will there be a tsunami causing at least 1 death in New Zealand by 2027?
14% chance
China gets direct land access to the sea of Japan from Russia through 2032
45% chance

Related questions

Will Japan experience a large disaster during July 2025?
5% chance
[Metaculus] Will there be a tsunami that kills at least 50,000 people before 2030?
28% chance
Japan hyperinflation by 2030?
3% chance
Will Japan acquire nuclear weapons before 2031?
40% chance
Japan's population increases YoY before 2047
30% chance
When will Japan’s mega earthquake happen
Will Japan produce hydrogen with nuclear power before 2031?
72% chance
Will there be a tsunami causing at least 1 death in New Zealand by 2027?
14% chance
Will Japan no longer be a developed country by 2050?
6% chance
China gets direct land access to the sea of Japan from Russia through 2032
45% chance
Terms & Conditions•Privacy Policy•Sweepstakes Rules
BrowseElectionNewsAbout