There must be some kind of report or proof that he was there but it can be pretty light. Any time spent on land in the country counts.
Flying over, cruising, etc don't.
It must be Biden himself not a replacement or successor.
Note: I wish I'd used Biden or his successor, not exactly him, since that reduces the constant recalculation of health risks. Politically, that's most of what matters too. I used that system in my other market and it worked well.
1,000
1.00@Ernie Cape verde has a population of around 600,000
@creator can resolve YES
Cape Verde is on the Wikipedia list mentioned in this comment
https://manifold.markets/Ernie/what-countries-or-regions-will-joe#NOYTwWkNQkQVQJCoLfRD
@mods Ernie has been pinged multiple times below in comments, can we get a bunch of resolutions according to comments please? ๐
@Ernie I think we've got a YES here.
@JoshuaWilkes I think I've been using that terminology to count both of those. I don't want to make people who don't believe it's a country uncomfortable, so I talk about just the island. And since for all these claims, there seems to be a pretty big difference between taiwan island "mainland" than those other holdings, I don't mind excluding them. Plus, I also gain the ability to automatically exclude any other new holdings the government there may gain at some point.
@Ernie I don't, but I haven't yet built my mana bankroll enough to bring this market closer to reality haha.
@JoshuaWilkes yeah! Meta is fine!! But I'll correct any ambiguous ones. Also in this market type even partial overlap is okay!
@Ernie I've been thinking maybe one of these for Xi? It could be pretty relevant.
If you limit it to the first ten international visits only, it makes it a lot more intense I image as you get down to one left. Do you follow it that closely? I've been trying to think of even more big mc markets to play with
@Ernie we'd have to look at Xi's visits this year, but my instinct is he hasn't made many more than ten anyway.
I think doing it in some form is a very good idea!
@JoshuaWilkes pre- and post- covid are quite different, he was doing 10-20 visits before, but just 5 at the end of 2022 and only 3(!) this year