WIll answers from top LLMs about COVID origins be stable in 2034?
Mini
4
Ṁ622034
41%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
/StrayClimb/will-llms-estimate-a-probability-ov
This market is about the stability of answers generated by the related market above.
The above question proposes asking a top LLM the same question five times. Each attempt generates a percent estimate.
This market is about whether the results of those five attempts will be within ten percent of each other.
I e if the five attempts are: 5,5,5,5,15 this resolves true. (Within a band 10% wide)
If they are 5,15,15,16,15 this resolves false (the band is 11% wide or higher)
Get
1,000and
1.00
1,0001.00Related questions
Related questions
Will the COVID lab leak theory be proven by 2025?
2% chance
Will LLMs estimate a probability over 40% that the origin of COVID was a lab leak in 2034?
34% chance
Will LLM hallucinations be a fixed problem by the end of 2025?
18% chance
Will any other US intelligence agency change their assessment of Covid origins towards a lab origin by the end of 2024?
28% chance
Will LLMs estimate a probability over 60% that the origin of COVID was a lab leak in 2034?
33% chance
Will the COVID lab leak theory be proven by 2027?
7% chance
Will I get COVID in 2024?
11% chance
If Scott Alexander organizes a Covid Origins Debate, will judges rule for lab leak? [Resolves 50% if no debate by 2025]
51% chance
Will there be another pandemic by the year 2030?
50% chance
Will a global pandemic of a novel infectious disease, similar to COVID-19, occur by 2030?
35% chance