Will any world leaders be assassinated by the end of 2024? | Manifold

Will any world leaders be assassinated by the end of 2024?

Plus

46

Ṁ10k

Jan 1

4%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

World leader means the/a main head leader of a sovereign country recognised by the UN. E.g a president or prime minister NOT just a parliament member. For countries with more then one president such as Bosnia and Herzegovina it can be any of their 3 presidents.

The world leader must be proved to have been killed (assassinated) and not just have died by mysterious or questionable circumstances.

The end time for this to occur is the 31st of December 2024 at 23:59.

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Even if Trump ain't in power yet I'd say this event tips things in favour: https://www.tampabay.com/news/florida-politics/2024/07/13/assassination-attempt-florida-reacts-incident-donald-trump-rally/

opened a Ṁ140 YES at 14% order

Similar market: https://manifold.markets/AndrewG/will-any-head-of-state-or-head-of-g

Prior:

2 WLs assassinated in office in the past 10 years. 47% of the year remaining. Assuming Poisson assassinations, P(x > 0) = 1 - e^(-0.2 * 0.47) ≈ 0.09

Posterior: which world leaders are likely to be killed in office? Putin?

Zelenskyy being possibly-killed this year is trading at 0.11

https://manifold.markets/Santiago/will-volodymir-zelensky-be-killed-i?r=WFRYaW52ZXJzZVhUWQ

And since this market for any world leader being killed is at 0.20 meaning there is more chance of just zelensky being killed than all other ≈190 leaders combined

They must be in office at the time, right? Not like Shinzo Abe, killed after he stepped down

Correct

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