Will there be a successful coup in Africa in 2024?
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Plus
20
Ṁ1983
Jan 16
12%
chance

Resolves in accordance with this Wikipedia page or its successor. Must be a successful coup, not a "coup attempt" or "plot" or similar.

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For the awkward edge case of a coup that spans the new year: if Wikipedia labels it the "2023-2024" coup, it is not included. If it is labeled the "2024-2025" coup, it is included. (The close date is after the new year to account for reporting delays.)