What if Starliner flies an unscrewed cargo mission to ISS before Starliner 1?

Tbh its about time they fly an unscrewed mission

When I wrote the question I didn't really think about that possibility; I was basically assuming it would be called another flight test mission. I think the best interpretation is that if it's called a test mission, this resolves positively. If it's called Starliner-1, and labeled as an operational mission, it resolves negatively (whether crewed or otherwise). (Noting that another "test" mission could also be a crewed mission, just as CFT-1 is a crewed test mission.) So the weird edge case is something named an "operational" mission, but not "Starliner-1". I'm inclined to think this should resolve No in that case (it's not "another test flight before the first ..."), but I could see a case for "it's a test even if they're not calling it that". I think it's simplest not to second-guess what counts as a test mission.

I suppose one could write a question for "will there be an uncrewed Starliner flight before the next crewed flight" or similar, if you thought the possibility was likely.

Basically this market btw

Yes, thank you! I'd forgotten about that one.

I think between that and other stuff we have most of the scenarios covered? I think we've got forecasts on Berger's entire scenario here:

I guess if Starliner is cancelled this resolves No? Or N/A?

If it's cancelled without any further flights, this question will resolve No.