Resolution criteria

This market will resolve YES if the Christian-Democratisch Appèl (CDA) wins 10 or more fewer seats in the next Dutch general election for the Tweede Kamer than it does in the election scheduled for 29 October 2025.

It will resolve NO otherwise.

Seat counts are determined by the definitive official results as published by the Kiesraad (Dutch Electoral Council).

Edge cases:

• If the CDA merges with another party of participates only as a part of a joint list (e.g. "CDA-XYZ") such that there is no separate CDA line on the ballot, this market resolves N/A.

• If the CDA continues to exist but does not take part in the subsequent election at all, this market resolves YES (provided the CDA won 10+ seats in 2025).

• If the CDA merely rebrands or changes its name while remaining the same registered political entity, and not merging or on a joint list with another party, it will still be treated as the CDA (e.g. a name change to "Democratisch Appèl").

• Results will not rely on polls, projections or unofficial counts. Only official Kiesraad data will be used.

This market will resolve once the Kiesraad publishes definitive results for the first parliamentary (Tweede Kamer) election held after October 2025.