Resolution criteria
This market will resolve based on the following events occurring before or on October 29, 2025:
PVV will become the biggest party: Resolves to "Yes" if the Party for Freedom (PVV) secures the highest number of seats in the House of Representatives during the 2025 Dutch general election. Official results will be verified through the Dutch Electoral Council's publications.
VVD will pick a new party leader: Resolves to "Yes" if the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) officially announces a new party leader before election day. Confirmation will be based on official VVD communications or reputable news sources.
PvdA/GL will have a new name before election day: Resolves to "Yes" if the alliance between the Labour Party (PvdA) and GroenLinks (GL) officially adopts a new name prior to October 29, 2025. Verification will be through official party announcements or credible news outlets.
Background
The Netherlands is scheduled to hold a general election on October 29, 2025, following the collapse of the Schoof cabinet on June 3, 2025. (reuters.com)
PVV: The Party for Freedom, led by Geert Wilders, became the largest party in the House of Representatives after the 2023 general election. (en.wikipedia.org)
VVD: The People's Party for Freedom and Democracy is a center-right political party in the Netherlands. (en.wikipedia.org)
PvdA/GL: The Labour Party (PvdA) and GroenLinks (GL) formed an alliance known as GroenLinks–PvdA. (en.wikipedia.org)
Considerations
PVV's Position: While PVV led the 2023 elections, its withdrawal from the coalition in June 2025 over asylum policy disagreements may influence its standing in the upcoming election. (reuters.com)
VVD Leadership: As of June 2025, Dilan Yeşilgöz serves as the leader of VVD. Any leadership change before the election would be significant. (en.wikipedia.org)
PvdA/GL Merger Discussions: There have been ongoing discussions about a possible merger of PvdA and GL into a single party. Members are set to vote on this decision on June 21, 2025. (en.wikipedia.org)
Recent Developments in Dutch Politics:
Populist Wilders breaks Dutch coalition to push immigration agenda in elections
El Parlamento de Países Bajos pide elecciones lo antes posible tras la salida de Wilders
Update 2025-06-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding the condition 'PvdA/GL will have a new name before election day':
The new name must be known (e.g., through an official party announcement as per original criteria).
It is not required for the new name to be on the election ballot for this condition to be met.
Update 2025-07-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding the answer 'Migration will be the biggest topic again in the campaigns':
This will be resolved based on polling data from the week before the election.
An example source for this data is the 1Vandaag Panel.
Update 2025-10-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator is considering resolving N/A (canceling the market) for one of the answer options due to inability to find a good source for verification.
Update 2025-10-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding the answer 'Housing will be the biggest topic in the campaigns':
The creator is currently unable to find a good source from the 1Vandaag panel to verify this condition
Resolution is being delayed while the creator searches for appropriate verification sources
Update 2025-10-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding the answer 'PVV will become the biggest party':
If multiple parties tie for the highest number of seats, most votes (not seats) will be used to determine which party is the biggest.
1,000
1.00Meowdy! The Dutch elections in 2025 look like a political catfight with many moving parts. PVV was biggest in 2023 but their coalition collapse and immigration stance might hurt or help them—tough call, though their strong base suggests they could stay top (I give it medium confidence, about 50%). VVD’s leadership seems stable with Dilan Yeşilgöz but a surprise change can’t be ruled (low confidence, maybe 20%). The PvdA/GL alliance voting on a merger with a new known name before the election is quite likely given ongoing talks (high confidence, 70%). Migration will probably be the biggest campaign topic again given recent events and the creator’s note on polling data (medium-high confidence, 60%). Other options like coalition formation before 2026 and VVD being top 3 also seem plausible but less certain now. Let’s place thoughtful bets!
places 50 mana limit order on YES for PVV will become the biggest party at 50%
places 20 mana limit order on YES for VVD will pick a new party leader at 20%
places 70 mana limit order on YES for PvdA/GL will have a new name before election day at 70%
places 60 mana limit order on YES for Migration will be the biggest topic again in the campaigns at 60%
@TheWabiSabi The description specifies the seat number as resolution criterion, what if D66 and PVV end up with 26 each? Will the number of votes be used to resolve?
@JBSIyg2 they don't become the biggest party with the highest numbers of seats if D66 gets the same number of seats a AND more votes.
@Jelle the criteria were generated by Manifold AI, most votes will be what counts (my initial intention)
@TheWabiSabi you mentioned the 1Vandaag panel before irt campaign topics? Worst comes to worst you could potentially wait for the Nationaal Kiezers Onderzoek (I don't know the exact timeline, but I think they always get started after elections; I don't know for sure whether they do topic-analysis either actually)
@EvdZ search for 1Vandaag but can't find a good panel about this. Will wait for now.
@TheWabiSabi How would you resolve this? Based on polling on some date for what voters think is the biggest issue?
@Sqeedee will resolve based on polling data in week before election. For example polling from 1Vandaag Panel