In 2024, will the majority of Redwood researchers think it would have been better if they had left Redwood in 2023?
Mini
5
Ṁ47
Jan 1
26%
chance

More precisely, will ≥3/5 of full-time members of technical staff of Redwood Research (on 08/01/2023) think on the 12/31/2024 it would have been better if they had left before the 12/31/2023.

Starting the process of leaving before the end of 2023 also counts (even if it would have been better to technically leave slightly after the end of 2023). It also counts if people leave in that time interval. “Better” means better for the world according to them. Each person answer for their own departure.

Resolves to NA if not enough people answer this question to settle the bet.

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Ṁ1,000
and
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