Will I still work on alignment research at Redwood Research in 3 years?
Mini
11
Ṁ3702026
70%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves to NO if I'm spending less than half of my working time doing alignment research at Redwood Research.
Get
1,000and
1.00
1,0001.00Sort by:
According to this market, there's only a 50% chance of Redwood existing in 3 years.
https://manifold.markets/RyanGreenblatt/will-redwood-research-still-exist-i-61212f9cdb2f
Related questions
Related questions
Will I still work on alignment research at Redwood Research in 5 years?
49% chance
Will Redwood Research still exist in 3 years?
68% chance
Will I have a career as an alignment researcher by the end of 2024?
38% chance
Will Redwood Research still exist in 5 years?
53% chance
Will I have a research position at Anthropic (Research Engineer included) by the end of 2025?
13% chance
Will taking annual MRIs of the smartest alignment researchers turn out alignment-relevant by 2033?
7% chance
Will I still work at memorang at the end of 2025?
72% chance
Will I have a research position at MIRI by 2025?
9% chance
Conditional on not having died from unaligned AGI, I consider myself a full time alignment researcher by the end of 2030
34% chance
By 2028, will I think Redwood Research has been net-good for the world?
83% chance