Will Patrick Rothfuss release "The Doors of Stone" in 2024?
Will Patrick Rothfuss release "The Doors of Stone" in 2024?
Mini
9
Ṁ1324Jan 1
1.4%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
A leak of the book does not resolve this market, only official publications
Get
1,000and
1.00
1,0001.00What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
Which year will Patrick Rothfuss release "The Doors of Stone"?
In what year will Patrick Rothfuss' book The Doors of Stone be released?
2030
In what year will Patrick Rothfuss' book The Doors of Stone be released?
Will Doors of Stone (Kingkiller Chronicles) be released before January 1st 2028?
20% chance
Will Patrick Rothfuss finish writing the third book of the Kingkiller Chronicles by 2030?
46% chance
Will Brandon Sanderson's 'secret project' release in 2025 as expected?
88% chance
Will there be a widely read alternative to The Doors Of Stone written by AI released by 2027?
16% chance
Will Brandon Sanderson release a previously unannounced novel outside of an existing series in 2024?
7% chance
Will the Kingkiller chronicles be completed by the end of 2024
8% chance
Will Patrick Rothfuss's "Kingkiller Chronicles" books be turned into a TV series by 2030?
29% chance