I don’t know what the exact relationship between the probabilities of these three questions should be but it’s interesting to try and loosely arbitrage.

@NicoDelon Ah, you revealed my secret plan. I thought @StrayClimb's market was much too high and I was interested to see if people would think differently if it was phrased in a different way.

I think my market and @StrayClimb's should add up to less than or equal to 100%. The three options are:

• He dies in a climbing accident

• He dies for another reason

• He doesn't die.

Mine resolves YES in the third case; @StrayClimb's market resolves YES in the first case, and they both resolve NO in the middle case.

(The exception to this is if he dies in a climbing accident between 17th August and 31st December 2035. Seems less than 4% chance, though, which is what is currently implied.)

I don't know how your market plays into this. I can't quite get my head around your market. I feel like he'll just do gradually less and less until he's "too old", but I don't know if there will be a "I'm retiring" moment. He's had a kid and that didn't stop him (although I think it has reduced his appetite for risk).

@Fion Ha, sorry, I didn’t mean to uncover secret plans. That’s what I had guessed but thanks for laying out your reasoning clearly.

I’m not sure about my market either. I guess at some point, if he seems like he’s phased out free solo, someone will have to ask him if intends to ever do it again. His words will resolve the market. Otherwise it may remain indeterminate for a while.

The "Life Extension" tag was added automatically. I thought it was amusing so I left it. Apologies if anybody finds this market because they were looking for genuine life extension markets and feels their time has been wasted. Further apologies to anyone who feels their time has been wasted by reading this comment. At the end of the day, it's the end of the day and if you're not lucky you've found you've wasted a day.