This question is about if Trump will exceed the expected presidential term in case he is elected this year.
Ways this might come to happen are among others
Trump running for a third term and winning
Postponing of the 2029 elections
Trump remaining in power as president for extended time due to a major global threat (like war)
Cancellation of the 2029 elections
Other major change in election rules that extends his presidency
In case there is a change in terminology or setup where post 2029 Trump is not holding the legal title of president, but holds all de factor all presidential powers, then this question might also resolve to "Yes", given there is agreement among the community that this reflects the situation justly.
If Trump is not elected as the 2025-2029 president, this question is resolved as N/A
1,000
1.00I can't exactly say I understand this market. Aren't presidents only allowed to run for 2 terms? Does this market imply that Trump might try to amend the constitution to allow himself to run for a 3rd term? Have the other theories(Extended threat, postponing or cancellation the election) ever happened before? Are they even allowed to happen? I'm not American so I don't know this stuff in and out.
@quadruple that is indeed what this market is about. How likely is it that trump stays in power after his second term, away from any currently existing conventions or rules on that matter.
Putin did it before, change the election rules to allow for a third term. And he stayed in office ever since.
There’s also this one I made a.while back: https://manifold.markets/Ansel/will-donald-trump-be-inaugurated-to?r=QW5zZWw