Will Polyoptions volume hit $100 million in 2026?
20
Ṁ3097
2026
38%
chance

This is a market on whether Polyoptions' total trading volume in 2026 is greater than or equal to $100,000,000.00 (as rounded to the nearest penny), according to official trading volume as first reported for that period, or portion thereof, at https://polyoptions.com/.

Trading volume will be measured in notional value, which equals the USD payout value of the underlying Polymarket positions.

If total trading volume in 2026 is less than $100,000,000.00 or if no such official data is published at that site on or before January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. Should Polyoptions change its name or URL, the relevant successor site will be used as the resolutions source.

Should Polyoptions merge with or be acquired by another platform prior to year-end and prior to trigerring a "Yes" resolution, such that Polyoptions' volume can not be disaggregated from that of its acquirer or merger partner, this market will resolve to “No”.

  • Update 2025-12-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Volume calculation example: A call option on 100 Polymarket shares that costs $2 to trade counts as $100 of volume (based on the notional value of the underlying shares, not the option premium paid).

  • Update 2025-12-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Polyoptions is currently on testnet with no USD trading volume yet. The platform is expected to launch in January (2025).

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bought Ṁ100 NO

I don't get the appeal of options on prediction markets. is there a payoff structure you could get from this that you couldn't replicate by just betting on the event?

Ok thinking about it - there is if the option expiry differs from the underlying. E.g. you could buy a call at 30% and a put at 70% to bet that the market stays between that range, can't replicate that with the underlying

@brod Yes. Leverage, downside protection, isolate volatility, time-specific prive movements, and vertical or calendar spreads.

Option expiry will typically be before underlying end date.

opened a Ṁ250 NO at 64% order

uhh very cool platform
how many United States Dollars (USD) have been traded on it so far

@BrendanFinan None. On testnet now. Launching in January.

bought Ṁ50 NO

100 million sounds like a lot.

@Eliza It's less than it sounds because it's tied to notional value (meaning the value of the underlying Polymarket shares). So a call option on 100 Polymarket shares that might cost $2 to trade counts as $100 of volume.