If manifold implements any feature discouraging market creators to bet on their own markets or informing bettors whether the market creator has bet on the market, then that month and all future months will resolve YES. If a month ends without this happening, it resolves NO.
Examples sufficient for YES:
Market creators get a pop-up message when trying to bet on their own market, discouraging them to bet.
Markets are color-coded depending on whether the market creator has bet.
Market creators can optionally set a flag on a market that makes it impossible for them to bet on it.
There is an drop-down menu on the market creation page to optionally append "I will not bet on this market"/"I may bet on this market" to the market description, even if this is not enforced.
Example not sufficient for YES:
Manifold discourages market creators to bet on their own markets in the help page/FAQ/market creation page/Discord.
Any such feature implemented before the creation of this market does not count.
This market is somewhat subjective, so I will not bet on it.
Update 2025-09-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - This market uses the intended interpretation: only features meant to discourage creators from betting on their own markets (or to inform bettors whether the creator has bet) count for YES.
Features that only incidentally discourage creator self-betting as a side-effect of other goals do not count.
1,000
1.00Resolves yes as this would count towards "any feature discouraging market creators to bet on their own markets"
https://manifold.markets/post/leagues-market-creator-updates?r=dG9iaWFzc2NoZXVlcg
It's not as strong as I would have liked, but it's a first step in the right direction
@tobiasscheuer i dont think this really counts imo, its also something theyve changed in the past right?
@strutheo I just quoted the resolution criteria which are fulfilled imo. Feel free to weigh as to why that is not "any feature discouraging market creators to bet on their own markets".
Manifold quite literally wrote in their announcement, they want to discourage market creators from betting on their own markets due to league rankings.
@tobiasscheuer I find that this situation is in a gray zone, and I'm not sure how to best deal with this.
First of all, "any feature discouraging market creators to bet on their own markets" is ambiguous, and could mean either "any feature that happens to discourage ..." or "any feature that is intended to discourage ...".
I believe that both interpretations work, but I intended the latter interpretation, which is hopefully exemplified by all examples in the market description.
Under this interpretation, I think these changes do not count (but I'm happy to hear arguments otherwise). These changes were intended to close a loophole where you could arbitrarily inflate your League winnings (by betting on your own market). By closing this loophole, that does happen to discourage market creators to bet on their own markets, but that was not the purpose of this change.
Sorry for the ambiguity.
@FlorisvanDoorn I understand the issue with ambiguity but imo the title and resolution criteria are pretty clear and broad enough to encompass the announced changes. Yes, the examples show more decisive changes and I personally would have liked something more like them, but we got what we got. And it fits the resolution criteria.
