Background

Coups d'état remain a significant threat to political stability in various regions around the world. Recent years have seen a concerning uptick in successful coups, particularly in West Africa and the Sahel region, often referred to as the "Coup Belt." Since 2020, countries including Mali, Guinea, Burkina Faso, Niger, and Sudan have experienced military takeovers.

Several factors increase a country's vulnerability to coups:

• Weak democratic institutions

• Economic instability and high inequality

• Military dissatisfaction

• History of previous coups

• Regional contagion effects

• Political polarization

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to any country that experiences a successful coup d'état during the 2025 calendar year (January 1, 2025 - December 31, 2025). A coup will be considered "successful" if:

1. The existing institutions are unlawfully removed from power through non-democratic means (self-coups apply)

2. The new regime maintains control for at least 24 hours (one day)

3. The event is widely recognized by international media and political analysts as a coup d'état

Multiple countries may resolve as YES if they each experience a successful coup during 2025.