This market explores the likelihood that the Breakthrough Listen project will present credible evidence of extraterrestrial life associated with the BLC-1 signal by 2025.
The Breakthrough Listen initiative, a large-scale search for intelligent extraterrestrial communications, has focused on signals from nearby stars, including Proxima Centauri. In 2019, the BLC-1 signal, detected by the Parkes Radio Telescope in Australia, was initially regarded as a potential technosignature—a possible indicator of alien technology.
The signal sparked interest because of its unusual characteristics, such as being narrowband and drifting in frequency, which are generally indicative of artificial origins.
However, further analysis attributed the signal to terrestrial interference, leading the scientific community to remain cautious in its interpretation.
Recently, claims by filmmaker Simon Holland, who has reportedly worked with NASA, reignited public interest by suggesting that significant findings related to BLC-1 may soon be disclosed.
Though these claims lack verification and are not peer-reviewed, they have fueled curiosity about whether Breakthrough Listen could ultimately present extraterrestrial evidence linked to BLC-1.
Resolution Criteria: This market will resolve to "YES" if credible, peer-reviewed scientific findings or consensus emerge before 2025, that strongly reduce the likelihood of a natural or terrestrial source for BLC-1.
Further Reading:
Sheikh, S. Z., et al. "Analysis of the BLC-1 signal using a technosignature verification framework." Nature Astronomy (2021). Available on arXiv: [arXiv link](https://ar5iv.labs.arxiv.org/html/2111.06350 )
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-13950399/Evidence-alien-life-revealed-month.html
"NASA Filmmaker Claims Evidence of Alien Life Could Be Revealed…" Overview of recent claims and public response on NDTV: [NDTV link](https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/nasa-filmmaker-claims-evidence-of-alien-life-could-be-revealed-next-month-6792180).
1,000
1.00Resolution Criteria: This market will resolve to "YES" if credible, peer-reviewed scientific findings or consensus emerge before 2025, that strongly reduce the likelihood of a natural or terrestrial source for BLC-1.
"strongly reduce the likelihood of a natural or terrestrial source for BLC-1" is different from it being "confirmed as alien technology".
@singer . In science, confirmation often comes from excluding alternative hypotheses, and this market reflects that process by focusing on the gradual elimination of possibilities.
@FranklinBaldo I'm sorry I wasn't clear. I was emphasizing the difference between "strongly reduce" and confirming that it isn't. A reduction from 99% to 90% might be a "strong reduction", but it wouldn't confirm the alternative hypothesis.
@FranklinBaldo But to avoid confusing people, it would be better to have them match. I immediately sold my shares after I learned what the criteria actually were. Here is my suggestion:
Resolution Criteria: This market will resolve to "YES" if credible, peer-reviewed scientific findings or consensus emerge before 2025, confirming that BLC-1 had neither a natural nor terrestrial source.
@singer that is not how science works. S market like this only can resolve to no. Besides that, the crux in this market is more about if anything at all will happen or if Simon Holland is only click baiting people.
@FranklinBaldo That seems like a good reason to change the title, if it's not how science works!
the crux in this market is more about if anything at all will happen or if Simon Holland is only click baiting people
It would be fun to make a market about that (maybe with a clickbait title ;)