Will xAI develop a more capable LLM than GPT-5 before 2026 | Manifold

Will xAI develop a more capable LLM than GPT-5 before 2026

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Resolves Yes if xAI releases an LLM that is more capable than GPT-5 before January 1st 2026.

Whatever the standard performance benchmark test at the time is will be the test.

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LiveBench makes this look like a cut and dry No.

What it's better than 'GPT-5' but worse than 'GPT-5 o13'?

yeah gpt-5 will obviously get better over time just like gpt-4 did

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