It is likely that the Republicans will take the Senate in the 2024 elections. They might also take control of the House and Presidency, having a legislative trifecta. However, under current Senate rules they would be unable to pass most laws, since Democrats could filibuster. However, Senate rules do allow the “nuclear option”, in which a simple majority vote can override Senate rules and abolish the filibuster.

If Republicans take control of the Senate, will they abolish the filibuster before the end of the 2028?

Resolves N/A if Republicans do not have control of the Senate (either a 51/49 split or a 50/50 split with a Republican VP). If it is partially abolished, I will either use my best judgement or resolve to a poll.

Chance of taking the Senate:

Same market for taking the trifecta: