What will happen before 2050? (Mega market)

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Ṁ5263

2050

ALL

30%

A US president (other than FDR) has served three terms.

80%

Alcor still exists, and nobody in their freezers has been thawe.

25%

USA has a single-payer healthcare system.

32%

A billionaire successfully buys a country.

50%

Strutheo's Manifold approval market index remains at or above 75% for one month

29%

A US president gets elected with over 450 electoral votes.

31%

This market gets a Sweepstakes/other cash version.

82%

This market reaches 500k in total volume.

50%

The UN reaches 200 member states.

33%

3 US presidential candidates get at least 60 electoral votes each in a US presidential election.

35%

Malaria goes extinct

80%

30 different users add an answer to this market.

42%

Global extreme poverty below 1% of the population

59%

Global temperature > 1.5°C Paris Agreement

35%

the calendar is changed

72%

Ray Kurzweil dies

41%

YoY US inflation (CPI) reaches over 25%

26%

majority of human babies are delivered from artificial system, rather than via natural pregnancy

77%

This market reaches 100+ answers.

34%

A billionaire CEO successfully buys a country.

Feel free to add answers!

If you don't want to add an answer because of the cost, suggest an answer in the comments and I'll tip you 5 mana/trader on your question (max 100M).

If you add a question yourself, comment and I'll tip you the unique trader bonuses that I get from it.

If a question can't be resolved objectively, it will be resolved according to a poll.

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15 Comments

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reposted

The new loan update will probably make markets like this more viable imo.

@GastonKessler Mana can't be donated at all now, so does that mean this resolves YES?

@TimothyJohnson5c16 tricky question but I guess that you're right because it only mentions the donation rate, thank you and sorry for the late resolve.

bought Ṁ50 Answer #63bc2tlpea NO

Quick precision, I'm noticing especially high expected total traders here. To clarify, I'm talking about the total individual traders ( those who appear on the market's list of info). Idk if you're simply being optimistic but I just wanted to be sure.

(Just joined, don't have enough mana to add answers)

Question suggestions:

Alcor still exists, and nobody in their freezers has been thawed
USA has a single-payer healthcare system in 2050
A US president (other than FDR) has served three terms

I assume malaria= extinct means outside the laboratory?

@PhilosophyBear @NathanHelmBurger

@PhilosophyBear If he doesn't give his own definition, I'll resolve it yes if and only if there hasn't been a single reported case of malaria for two years straight.

@PhilosophyBear yeah, I think that two years of zero cases in humans and scientists declaring that no recovery of parasite population is expected is a fair operationalization of 'extinct'. Controlled samples in a lab wouldn't count against this, same as with smallpox being counted as extinct but still existing in labs.

reposted

From now on, any question suggested won't provide a fixed tip, the tip will be 5 Mana/unique trader (maxed 100 mana)

reposted

If you don't want to add an answer because of the cost, suggest an answer in the comments and I'll tip you 10-50 mana if I think it's good + more if it does really well.

"An ASI trades on, adds an option to, or comments on this market"

" @GastonKessler goes to space"

"A billionaire CEO successfully buys a country"

"Elon Musk goes bald a second time"

bought Ṁ10 Answer #alytxobcih YES

Trying to turn this into a 2050 Mega market.

@GastonKessler this wont get 100+ or 250+ traders if you don't share it or make it more visible ... make it more visible, you can do it ... :)

I've reposted it to my... 7 followers, I hope that will get a few traders/creators . If you want to help growing this into a bigger market, feel free to add answers!

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