What will be the top-3 AI labs in 2030?
What will be the top-3 AI labs in 2030?
Mini
29
Ṁ13242031
1D
1W
1M
ALL
25%
OpenAI
22%
20%
DeepMind
16%
Anthropic
5%
Meta
3%
xAI
2%
Alibaba
1.6%
US Government
1.4%
NVIDIA
1.1%
High-Flyer
2022 would resolve as OpenAI, Stability.AI, Deepmind
Based on social media buzz, search trends, etc. — i.e. purely on buzz/prestige
50/30/20 resolution to the most impactful in public opinion during the year
Get
1,000
and1.00
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
Learn more.1.00
→ $1.00, minus a 5% fee.Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
Learn more.1.00
→ $1.00, minus a 5% fee.Related questions
What will be the top-3 AI labs in 2024?
Will xAI AI be a Major AI Lab by 2025?
47% chance
Which AI lab is the most underrated of 2024?
What will be the top-3 AI labs in 2025?
Which 3 AI labs/companies will make the most impact in 2024 (technical contributions to the field of AI)?
Which AI will be the best at the end of 2024?
Which countries will have a top 3 AI lab at EOY2027?
Where will the next major breakthrough in AI originate from before 2025?
What will be the top-3 AI tools in 2030?
Will a top US AI lab be nationalized by 2030?
42% chance