Will an AI-created movie have 100mm views by 2025?
Will an AI-created movie have 100mm views by 2025?
➕
Plus
28
Ṁ2176
Jan 1
17%
chance

Written, animated, and directed by AI

Human prompt and final cut selection allowed

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S1.00


Sort by:
2y

What counts as a movie? A 15 min YouTube video could be a mini-movie, with proper credits to AI

2y

Yes there a length restriction on what constitutes a “movie”? Any other form of artistic restriction (e.g requiring a plot, characters, etc)?

2y
predicts NO 2y

@TomCohen Good question, with no restrictions even something like a simple AI-generated trippy visualizer could count.

2y

Anything remotely as good as

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=FI0T0Oj7WFE

(As long as humans simply prompt engineered and left the rest to AI)

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana Ṁ and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash S to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
S1.00
→ $1.00
, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.