Added a question with more clearly defined criteria: https://manifold.markets/nsokolsky/will-russia-mobilize-at-least-100k-7b10d4ccb93b#5RYvcPTm4WLCJxeEGGi9

Note that mobilization in Russia never actually ended from legal perspective, they just stopped taking people en masse, so the question isn't whether Russia resumes mobilization or whether Putin declares it, but whether they start taking people en masse (at least tens of thousands) again.

@Grey8d2be could you please write a resolution criteria? Because if this question is about "10k+ people join the Russian army in 2024", it should be more like 95%. In 2023 it was more then 100k

It's not about people joining army, but rather about Russia starting to mobilize people en masse again. Currently over 10k people join Russian army monthly either voluntarily signing contracts or being pressured into it, but Russia takes almost no people through mobilization at the moment. So if Russia takes at least 10k people through mobilization in a single month then the question will be resolved as YES.

Mobilization - sending civilian people mobilization notices that force them to arrive in a military office to join army that, if not complied with, can be enforced either physically by police or through legal consequences.