"Will AOH1996 boost 5yr survival >35% for min. 2 of these cancers: brain, lung, cervical, ovarian?"
"Will AOH1996 boost 5yr survival >35% for min. 2 of these cancers: brain, lung, cervical, ovarian?"
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This market gauges the potential long-term impact of AOH1996, on overall cancer survival rates. Unlike markets focusing on short-term results in clinical trials or regulatory approvals, this market probes the drug's real-world significance.
To quantify, a 'boost' means a minimum 35% increase in 5-year survival rates from baseline. For instance, if a cancer type has a current survival rate of 50%, AOH1996 should elevate it to over 67.5%.
Our focus is on overall survival rates across all stages of these cancers: brain, lung, cervical, ovarian. This ensures broad applicability, instead of focusing on specific stages.
The resolution occurs 10 years post-approval of AOH1996, when its impact can be robustly assessed and is unlikely to grow further or any time before that when there is a broad concensus about the level of impact.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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