This market will resolve yes if a volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volcanic_explosivity_index) of 2 or greater is directly triggered by human activities by Jan. 1, 2100. Both accidental and purposeful activities that directly cause an eruption will count. Some examples of direct triggers could include drilling or a human-caused explosion. Indirect mechanisms, such as climate change increasing the chances of eruption (e.g., https://pubs.geoscienceworld.org/gsa/geology/article/46/1/47/521232/Climatic-control-on-Icelandic-volcanic-activity), do not count.
I will use a consensus of reputable sources (USGS, peer-reviewed journals) to determine the VEI of an eruption and whether it was directly caused by human activity.
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1.00I don't think so, while possible, the goal of such intervention would be to reduce impact, which is probably more likely to cause less severe eruptions. Accidental / eruptions in war also don't seem particularly likely in that timeframe.
@ArmandodiMatteo It probably depends on how exactly the AI causes the eruption. It the AI somehow coerces humans to cause the explosion/eruption then I'd say it's directly human-triggered. If the AI somehow does it independent of humans (say by launching weapons), then it's indirect.
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What is this?
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