This will resolve as true if the Western sanctions on Russia will be largely lifted (let's say more than 80 percent) at any point before 2031 compared to the baseline of today (2024-06-30).
If the resolution is controversial, I will feed the question title/description and the "History" section of the "International sanctions during the Russo-Ukrainian War" Wikipedia article to the best free OpenAI model and ask it to resolve it as yes, no or N/A.
1,000
1.00GPT-4o is not very optimistic:
Betting on whether Western sanctions on Russia will be largely lifted before 2031 is highly speculative and involves numerous geopolitical, economic, and social variables. Here are some factors to consider before making a bet:
Factors Favoring "YES"
Geopolitical Shifts: If there are significant changes in Russia's political landscape or leadership that align more closely with Western interests, sanctions could be lifted.
Diplomatic Agreements: Potential peace agreements or resolutions to conflicts involving Russia might lead to a reduction or lifting of sanctions.
Economic Interests: Economic pressures on Western countries or a desire to re-engage economically with Russia might push towards lifting sanctions.
Global Cooperation: Increased global cooperation on issues like climate change, terrorism, or public health might necessitate a reduction in sanctions.
Factors Favoring "NO"
Continued Conflicts: Ongoing or escalating conflicts involving Russia, such as in Ukraine, could maintain or even increase sanctions.
Human Rights Issues: Continued or worsening human rights violations by Russia could reinforce the rationale for sanctions.
Political Stance: A persistent hardline stance from Western governments against Russia could sustain the sanctions.
International Alliances: Strong alliances and mutual agreements among Western nations to maintain a unified front against Russian policies could keep sanctions in place.
Personal Speculation
Given the current trajectory of international relations and the complexity of the issues involved, it is difficult to foresee a major shift in sanctions within the next few years. However, the time frame until 2031 is relatively long, and numerous unpredictable events could occur. Balancing the arguments:
If Betting "YES": One might argue that over a span of seven years, there is a reasonable chance for diplomatic resolutions or changes in leadership that could lead to the lifting of sanctions.
If Betting "NO": Considering the persistent nature of international conflicts and the deep-seated geopolitical tensions, it seems more likely that significant sanctions will remain in place.
Conclusion
Personally, I would lean slightly towards betting "NO" given the current geopolitical climate and historical precedence of long-lasting sanctions.