Clarifications: does this resolve YES if a Grok model reaches the top of lmsys, even if it is surpassed before the end of the market?

does "by december" inclusive or exclusive?

End of December. Must not be surpassed again. Musks claim was to have the most powerful AI by every metric.

By the beginning or end of december?

End of December

I place this at < 5% because I don't think X.ai has GPU resources that exceed Anthropic, OpenAI and DeepMind. Also, their approach seems to have been a bit scattershot.