Resolves as YES if the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that annual inflation was over 5% from the start of 2023 to the end of 2025.
Inflation calculations will be based on BLS figures. If the methods for calculating CPI are altered or the data is generally agreed to be unreliable, the question will still use official BLS figures.
The way that this will be calculated is by taking the CPI at the end of 2025, dividing it by the CPI at the start of 2023, and then calculating the annualized inflation rate using that ratio. (Raise the ratio to the power of (1/2) since two years have elapsed, then subtract 1 from that figure, and multiply the difference by 100 to yield the annualized inflation rate.)
1,000
1.00@GaryGrenda No, that's not what it says. The annualized inflation rate over the whole time period has to be over 5%. I can write a clarification for how it will be calculated.
Breakevens trades at 11%
Suggest buying if think this is >~15%