Israel uses a nuclear weapon, either a neutron bomb, fission bomb (like used in Hiroshima) or hydrogen bomb against an adversary before January 1st, 2026.
To resolve as YES, Israel must admit the use of a weapon or the New York Times must say that Israel detonated the weapon.
Shows of force (e.g. doing a nuclear test on the border of Iran) that do not kill anyone or destroy property will cause this claim to be resolved as YES.
1,000
1.00I don't push it down below 1% because of fluidity, but the current 7% is crazy. It would take a likely short term danger to Israel's existence to break the current Israeli policy on the subject, let alone breaking an 80yo international taboo. Maybe if 2 of Egypt Tuekey and Iran attack on the same time, it would make sense. But really??