≥2000 engaged users on Manifold in 2024?

Plus

Ṁ87k

Jan 1

0.6%

chance

ALL

Any single day has at least 2000 Engaged users, e.g. as Jan 31 has 1582 in the below screenshot.

Resolves according to manifold.markets/stats, or official Manifold data that replaces it.

I might bet in this market, as resolution is unambiguous.

#Manifold

#Manifold Business Future

#Manifold User Retention

Get

1,000

and

1.00

13 Comments

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sold Ṁ147 YES

anyone think this is higher than 1%? buy my shares if so

sold Ṁ0 YES

@Bayesian you could hedge at slightly better price here (I don't have enough capital)

Rough, I was really expecting a peak around election season...

@BobLoblaw Same, was extremely hopeful I'm wrong with my bet here. But Polymarket will likely be the king of markets from now on.

opened a Ṁ15,000 YES at 52% order

15k YES at 52%

@nsokolsky maybe interested?

Unfortunately this market is quite easy to manipulate using bots/fake accounts, don't want to risk too much mana.

hmm, fair enough.

bought Ṁ4,000 YES

woooooo

bought Ṁ50 YES

I'm thinking yes because elections are coming and will draw lot of people to betting markets

opened aṀ5,000YES at 53% order

@Bayesian long way to go on that chart. Insider info or plan to manipulate?

@deagol thought we were at 1500 ngl. No insider info. Also YES shares are more valuable than NO shares bc in the worlds where this resolves YES the shares are more likely to be worth money

We are now nearly at 1500! Epic. Also pivot stuff ig. But I’m pretty skeptical of the pivot working out

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