Includes OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, xAI, Meta.
Should have some publicly listed acknowledgment of the employment, e.g. an interview, press release, or LinkedIn page.
Only consulting (at ~less than <50%) doesn't count.
Includes "doing an Ilya" and starting something that looks ripe for substantial investment, even if not major at time of formation.
I will not trade in this market.
Clarification:
> "Scenario: it's July 2025, we have no idea what Murati is up to. January 2026 we learn that she's been working on a stealth startup with GV and A16Z backing since December 2024. I think something like this is quite likely. Should I bet NO because this ends Q2 when we won't know or will this resolve later if we don't know either way?"
Such case would resolve NO, I will resolve according to known status at market close.
1,000
1.00Scenario: it's July 2025, we have no idea what Murati is up to. January 2026 we learn that she's been working on a stealth startup with GV and A16Z backing since December 2024. I think something like this is quite likely. Should I bet NO because this ends Q2 when we won't know or will this resolve later if we don't know either way?
@Enlil Thanks for engaging!
> Should have some publicly listed acknowledgment of the employment, e.g. an interview, press release, or LinkedIn page.
In theory, such fog of war period could stretch out forever, and I am pretty against re-resolving in a case like described by you. I'll clarify in description, but your case would resolve NO.
What is this?
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and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
How do I win cash prizes?
and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00