This refers to Luigi Mangione’s New York murder trial. I will resolve these as they occur. Unless otherwise noted, all others will be resolved upon completion of the trial.
If/when trial date becomes more clear, I will open another market for events specifically occurring during the trial.
Please add options and I will do my best to ensure they are clear and not duplicative.
Each proposition will resolve independently based on publicly verifiable information from reputable news sources or official court documents before the start of the trial. Specific resolution criteria:
Trump comments: Must be direct statements about the Mangione case from Donald Trump on social media, in speeches, or to media outlets
Self-representation: Requires Mangione to represent himself in ALL pre-trial hearings after formally declining legal representation
Venue change: Must be officially granted by the court, not just requested
Media interview: Must be an exclusive interview with immediate family members (parents, siblings) published by a major national news outlet
Reference arrests: Must be documented arrests where the suspect/criminal explicitly cites Mangione or this case as inspiration/motivation
Plea deal: Must be a formally accepted plea agreement before trial begins
Public statement: Direct statements from Mangione himself through any medium, excluding court testimony or documents filed with the court
Nancy Grace: Must explicitly call for conviction through her show or social media
Congressional support: Must be clear, direct statements of support from sitting members of Congress
Confession: Must be a formal confession to law enforcement or the court, beyond the existing handwritten document
Evidence allegations: Must be formal allegations filed in court documents by the defense
Additional charges: Must be formal criminal charges filed in direct connection with Thompson's murder
Markets resolve N/A if the trial begins or the case is settled before the specified event occurs.
Update 2024-11-12 (PST): Markets will resolve N/A if the specified event has not occurred before the start of opening arguments at trial. (AI summary of creator comment)
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1.00@GG It's weird that Mangione would shoot a 3D printed Glock frame when he had a clean background. It can be a fun project, and it's definitely better than nothing if you can't access a real frame. But a 3D printed Glock frame will never be as reliable as an injection molded one, and it's quite a bit more hassle to acquire.
So why would Mangione 3D print instead of buying a Glock? Probably because he thought it would make him harder to catch. But there's also a good chunk of probability where Mangione can't purchase a Glock because he fails a NICS check. Mangione didn't appear to have any criminal history, so the only way he's failing that check is if he's been involuntarily committed. And it's not hard to be involuntarily committed, just tell a nurse you have a plan to kill yourself.
So while I don't think it's the largest probability region, I do think there's a decent-size probability island where Mangione was involuntarily committed.
@GG The beginning of opening arguments. But these will be resolved at trial conclusion. E.g. if opening arguments begin, but the next day polling comes out indicating favorable ratings for Mangione, that would resolve “Yes”.
If/when trial date becomes clear, I will create another market for events specifically occurring during the trial.
